Step 1
Fixture data
Competition context, schedule load, and baseline team inputs.
480+ weekly fixtures
Model notebook
Model process shown like a working terminal notebook.
xGenie keeps the model workflow explicit: fixture inputs, probability, fair odds, market comparison, risk filter, and final status. Sample data only.
Workflow
From market price to decision
Each stage logs rationale so users can review why a market becomes Qualified, Watch, or No Bet.
Step 2
Model probability
Outcome likelihood estimated with calibrated football model assumptions.
BTTS 56.8%Step 3
Fair odds
Probability translated into fair market pricing for execution decisions.
Fair 1.76Step 4
Market comparison
Best available price compared against fair line and minimum threshold.
Best 1.91Step 5
Risk filter
Lineups, liquidity, and volatility flags are applied before status assignment.
3 active flagsStep 6
Decision
Qualified, Watch, or No Bet with explanation and preview stake guidance.
QualifiedSelected Match Intelligence
Inter vs Milan
- Market
- BTTS Yes
- Model probability
- 56.8%
- Fair odds
- 1.76
- Best price
- 1.91
- EV
- +8.5%
- Minimum playable price
- 1.84
- Confidence
- Medium-high
- Decision
- Qualified
Model Edge Curve
Sample dataExpected value progression across signal stages.
- Model edge
- Qualification threshold
- Market drift
xGenie Copilot
Decision engine
User
Why is BTTS qualified here?
xGenie
The model prices BTTS Yes at 56.8%, implying fair odds of 1.76. Current best price is 1.91, clearing the minimum playable threshold after derby-volatility adjustment.
Risk flags
- Derby volatility
- Lineups pending
- Market liquidity acceptable
Decision: Qualified
Stake: Preview only
Reason: Price clears model threshold
Sample output
Qualification table
Sample model workspace - live outputs coming later.
Example market data only. Not live tracking.
| Fixture | Market | Model % | Fair | Best | EV | Risk | Decision |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man City vs Aston Villa | Home Win | 58.4% | 1.71 | 1.82 | +6.4% | Lineups pending | Watch |
| Arsenal vs Newcastle | Over 2.5 | 52.1% | 1.92 | 1.83 | -4.7% | Price below threshold | No Bet |
| Inter vs Milan | BTTS Yes | 56.8% | 1.76 | 1.91 | +8.5% | Derby volatility | Qualified |
| Dortmund vs Leverkusen | Over 2.5 | 55.6% | 1.80 | 1.86 | +3.3% | High tempo variance | Watch |
| PSG vs Lille | Home Win | 63.2% | 1.58 | 1.69 | +7.1% | Strong model agreement | Qualified |
| Real Sociedad vs Sevilla | Under 2.5 | 57.9% | 1.73 | 1.84 | +6.4% | Home bias correction | Qualified |
| Juventus vs Atalanta | BTTS Yes | 51.1% | 1.96 | 1.89 | -3.6% | Price below threshold | No Bet |
| Liverpool vs Brighton | Over 2.5 | 60.4% | 1.66 | 1.72 | +3.6% | High variance market | Watch |
| Porto vs Benfica | Draw No Bet Home | 49.8% | 2.01 | 2.16 | +7.5% | Derby volatility | Qualified |
| Ajax vs PSV | BTTS Yes | 62.0% | 1.61 | 1.67 | +3.7% | Lineups pending | Watch |
| Sporting vs Braga | Home Win | 55.2% | 1.81 | 1.75 | -3.3% | Price below threshold | No Bet |
| Napoli vs Fiorentina | Over 2.5 | 57.1% | 1.75 | 1.88 | +7.4% | Strong model agreement | Qualified |
| Marseille vs Monaco | BTTS Yes | 54.0% | 1.85 | 1.87 | +1.1% | High variance market | Watch |
| Atletico vs Valencia | Under 2.5 | 59.2% | 1.69 | 1.62 | -4.1% | Price below threshold | No Bet |
| Celtic vs Rangers | Over 2.5 | 53.4% | 1.87 | 1.95 | +4.3% | Derby volatility | Watch |
| Bayern vs Leipzig | BTTS Yes | 58.7% | 1.70 | 1.78 | +4.7% | Strong model agreement | Qualified |
On mobile, swipe horizontally to review all columns.